Bill forecasts
Choose how Figa estimates variable monthly bills, understand reliability and change an existing recurring expense.
Plan a gas or electricity bill before the invoice arrives. Figa estimates each occurrence using your chosen method. Confirm the actual amount and billing period when you receive the invoice; recording its payment is a separate step.
Choose a method
When creating a recurring expense, choose Variable monthly bill, then Forecast method. These methods apply to ordinary monthly bills; services calculated from a schedule and price use their own settings.
| Method | How it works |
|---|---|
| Last confirmed amount | Uses the latest earlier confirmed invoice. For example, a 120 PLN bill becomes the next estimate. |
| Average of recent bills | Averages the last three comparable monthly invoices: 100, 120 and 140 PLN give 120 PLN. |
| Seasonal forecast | Uses comparable periods from the previous three years, with a trend adjustment when supported by consistent year-on-year history. A winter gas bill uses winter history. |
| Manual forecast amount | Uses the amount you enter until you change it. New invoices do not replace this setting. |
Last confirmed amount is the default. Figa keeps your selection; it does not automatically choose a strategy.
Example: your confirmed December 2025 gas bill was 700 PLN, followed only by monthly bills of 250 PLN through November 2026. The seasonal estimate for a comparable December 2026 period is 700 PLN, with low reliability: there is one matching December and not enough year-on-year history to adjust the trend.
When history is limited
Seasonal forecasting falls back to the three-bill average when comparable seasonal history is missing. With fewer than three comparable monthly bills, it uses the last confirmed invoice, then the optional Starting estimate. Without either, the amount stays unknown. The average method uses the same fallback. Manual forecasting requires an amount.
Only earlier confirmed invoices in the same currency contribute. Skipped or deleted occurrences and unconfirmed estimates do not become forecast history.
Monthly periods can cross calendar months: 15 November–14 December is compared with the same cycle in earlier years, not a calendar December bill. Shorter months are handled too. For an incomplete or non-monthly period, the average and seasonal methods use the last invoice or starting estimate.
Read the estimate
Calculated estimates have a small chart icon beside the amount. Hover or tap it for the basis of the estimate and, when relevant, a short note that seasonal history is missing. Manual estimates do not display this icon.
Open the bill details for low, medium or high reliability, the number of source bills and the reasons. Reliability reflects history, variability and how far ahead the forecast looks; it is not a probability. Manual amounts are marked Set by you.
Edit an existing recurring expense
Open Edit and change How is the amount determined? between Fixed amount and Variable monthly bill. Choose From, enter the amount or forecast method, and save with the rest of the form.
The change replaces the planned method from that occurrence onward. Earlier settings, confirmed invoices and Paid expenses are preserved. Changing only the forecast method or starting estimate applies across the series’ variable periods; confirmed amounts stay unchanged.
Save date changes separately from a method change. Changing the recurring schedule is currently unavailable once the series has a history of billing-method changes.
For integrations, see the API fields and examples, MCP tools and invoice workflow. The spending forecast projects monthly totals; this guide concerns individual bill amounts.